Trouble in Turkey: Has Erdogan Crossed the Rubicon?

 

With Turkish authorities detaining 37 people for sharing “provocative” content on social media and pressing ahead with a crackdown on dissenting voices that escalated with the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, a potential challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkiye appears to be heading towards turmoil in the coming days. Mayor Imamoglu was arrested after a dawn raid on his residence on Wednesday as part of investigations into alleged corruption and terror links. Several other prominent figures, including two district mayors, were also detained. The detention of a popular opposition leader and key Erdogan rival deepened concerns over democracy and sparked protests in Istanbul and elsewhere, despite a four-day ban on demonstrations in the city and road closures. Several people were detained following a student protest in the capital, Ankara, that continued into the night. It also caused a shockwave in the financial market, triggering temporary halts in trading to prevent panic selling. 

Critics see the crackdown as an effort by Erdogan to extend his more than two-decade rule following significant losses by the ruling party in local elections last year. Government officials reject claims that legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated and insist that the courts operate independently. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said authorities identified 261 social media accounts that shared provocative posts inciting public hatred or crime, including 62 run by people based abroad. At least 37 of the suspected owners were detained in an operation by police and cybercrime teams, he wrote on the X social media platform. Efforts to detain other suspects were continuing, he said. 

Imamoglu's arrest came just days before he was expected to be nominated as the opposition Republican People's Party's presidential candidate in a primary scheduled for Sunday. The party's leader has said the primary will go ahead as planned. Prosecutors accused Imamoglu of exploiting his position for financial gain, including the improper allocation of government contracts. In a separate investigation, prosecutors also accuse Imamoglu of aiding the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, by allegedly forming an alliance with a Kurdish umbrella organisation for the Istanbul municipal elections. The PKK, behind a decades-long insurgency in Turkiye, is designated a terrorist organisation by Ankara, Washington, and other allies. It seems Imamoglu could be removed from office and replaced by a “trustee mayor” if he is formally charged with links to the PKK. 

Before his detention, Imamoglu already faced multiple criminal cases that could result in prison sentences and a political ban. Recently, a university nullified his diploma, barring him from running for president. Imamoglu was elected mayor of Turkiye's largest city in March 2019, a historic blow to Erdogan. These sudden developments suggest another Arab Spring-like situation is imminent in Turkey.