Heat Rising: South Asia’s Climate Emergency

The World Bank’s latest report, titled “From Risk to Resilience: Helping People and Firms Adapt in South Asia”, paints a grim picture of the climate crisis unfolding across South Asia, with India at the epicentre of its most devastating impacts. By 2030, nearly 90% of the region’s population will face extreme heat, a consequence of rising global temperatures and erratic weather patterns. For India, this projection is particularly alarming, given its dense population, agrarian economy, and already vulnerable communities. The implications are far-reaching, threatening not just public health but also food security, economic stability, and social cohesion.

Extreme heat will exacerbate existing inequalities, hitting the poorest the hardest. Daily wage labourers, farmers, and urban slum dwellers, who lack access to cooling infrastructure, will bear the brunt of soaring temperatures. Heatwaves, already more frequent and intense, could lead to a surge in heat-related illnesses and fatalities, overwhelming India’s healthcare systems. Cities, where concrete landscapes trap heat, will become “urban heat islands,” making life unbearable for millions. The report warns that productivity losses due to heat stress could shave off significant percentages from India’s GDP, crippling growth just as the nation aspires to become an economic powerhouse.

Agriculture, the backbone of India’s rural economy, faces an existential threat. Erratic monsoons and prolonged droughts will disrupt crop cycles, reducing yields of staples like wheat and rice. This could trigger food shortages, price volatility, and heightened farmer distress, fuelling rural-urban migration and social unrest. Meanwhile, water scarcity will intensify, with groundwater depletion and erratic rainfall patterns leaving vast regions parched. States like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, already grappling with water crises, may see conflicts over resources escalate.

The report underscores the urgent need for adaptive measures, but India’s response remains fragmented. While initiatives like the National Action Plan on Climate Change exist, implementation is uneven, and funding is inadequate. Urban planning must prioritise green spaces and heat-resistant infrastructure, while agriculture requires a shift to climate-resilient crops and efficient water management. Renewable energy investments can mitigate emissions, but transitioning from coal, a major energy source, poses economic and political challenges.

Beyond national efforts, global cooperation is critical. Even developed nations like the US struggle with climate disasters, from wildfires to hurricanes, yet political divides hinder cohesive policy action, exposing global vulnerabilities. Wealthier nations, historically the largest carbon emitters, must honour climate finance commitments to help vulnerable regions adapt. For India, the crisis is both a warning and an opportunity to rethink development models, prioritise sustainability, and lead the Global South in climate innovation. Without urgent action, India’s future will be defined by heat, hardship, and unfulfilled potential. The time to act is now, before the rising temperatures leave no room for recourse.