The Waning Power of Hamas: A Diminishing Force Amid Historical Parallels

Hamas, once the undisputed master of Gaza, is witnessing its power erode. Since seizing the enclave in 2007, the Islamist group has ruled through a blend of militancy, governance, and repression. Yet, its fateful decision to launch the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel—abducting 251 people and triggering a devastating war—has set it on a downward spiral. By March 25, 2025, with leaders assassinated and the group reportedly agreeing to exit Gaza in ceasefire talks, Hamas’s decline mirrors the fate of other militant organisations that overreached, only to crumble under pressure. 

Historically, Hamas emerged in 1987 during the First Intifada as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, blending Palestinian nationalism with Islamist ideology. Unlike Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which transitioned from armed struggle to diplomacy, securing the Oslo Accords and limited self-governance, Hamas rejected compromise, prioritising resistance over state-building. While the PLO’s shift brought Arafat international legitimacy, it also diluted its revolutionary edge, a path Hamas scorned. Instead, Hamas entrenched itself in Gaza after ousting Fatah in 2007, ruling with an iron fist and suppressing dissent, as documented in a 2018 Human Rights Watch report. 

This trajectory echoes other militant groups. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, though still potent, has faced setbacks from Israeli campaigns and internal Lebanese discontent. The Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, after decades of insurgency, were crushed by 2009 when their rigid militancy alienated supporters and invited overwhelming retaliation. Similarly, Hamas’s refusal to cede power or end the war it sparked has fueled a rare backlash in Gaza. Protests in Beit Lahiya this week, verified by The New York Times, reveal a populace weary of war and increasingly blaming Hamas alongside Israel for their plight, demanding its departure. 

Despite retaining thousands of fighters, Hamas’s efforts to reassert dominance during a January ceasefire faltered. Israel’s renewed bombardment in March, aimed at freeing hostages, has only deepened the group’s isolation. Gazans now voice a collective exhaustion, fearing that any truce preserving Hamas’s rule would merely postpone the next conflict. This sentiment marks a sharp departure from the group’s early days as a grassroots resistance movement, underscoring its transformation into a liability for those it claims to represent. 

Hamas’s diminishing fate contrasts starkly with the PLO’s pragmatic evolution, highlighting a recurring lesson: militant groups that cling to absolutism often face extinction, while those that adapt may endure. As its leaders fall and its people turn away, Hamas’s once-mighty roost in Gaza is crumbling, perhaps signalling the end of its reign.